For a while, something out of the ordinary happened to Rolex. Not the watches, but the market around them. Steel Daytonas were trading for absurd premiums, GMT-Masters became investment pieces, and people who had never cared about watchmaking suddenly knew exactly how much a green Submariner was worth on the secondary market.
You couldn't simply walk into an authorised dealer and buy the Rolex you wanted. In some cases, you couldn't even get onto the right waiting list. And somehow, all of this made people want Rolex even more.
That was the strange magic of the market between 2020 and 2022. Scarcity created demand, demand created speculation and speculation created even more scarcity.
Now things look different.
Chrono24's “Rolex Report 2026”, built from several million transactions between 2018 and the second quarter of 2026, shows Rolex still sitting comfortably at the top of the secondary watch market. But comfortably isn't the same as untouchably, and that's where things get interesting.
First, let's get one thing straight: Rolex is still Rolex
It would be easy to look at Rolex losing market share and declare that the brand is slipping. That would also be wrong. Rolex still accounts for roughly 30.5% of the dollar value of transactions on Chrono24. In the $10,000–$20,000 section of the market, Rolex controls around 61% of transaction value. Think about that for a second. Six out of every ten dollars moving through that price bracket on Chrono24 are attached to a Rolex. That's enormous.
Prices haven't exactly collapsed either. Chrono24's Rolex Price Index sits roughly 55% above 2019 levels and has actually increased by about 7% over the past year. A struggling brand doesn't normally look like that.
But here's the problem.
Rolex used to look even stronger. At the peak in 2022, Rolex represented a frankly ridiculous 44.1% of transaction value on Chrono24, nearly half. Today, that's 30.5%. If you only look at those two numbers, you could make a pretty convincing case that Rolex is losing ground.
It is.
But I think the more important question is: ground from what? Because 2022 wasn't normal. Nothing about that watch market was normal. Money was cheap, supply was tight and crypto had made some buyers suddenly wealthy. Watches were being discussed like stocks. "Investment potential" started creeping into conversations that used to be about movements, history and design. And Rolex was sitting in the middle of all of it.
The hype fed itself. Someone bought a Daytona above retail because they thought it would go higher. The higher transaction became the new benchmark. That encouraged someone else to pay even more. Eventually the watch wasn't just a watch anymore. Eventually, the watch was an asset. Or at least everyone convinced themselves it was.
Rolex Cosmograph Daytona
So when Rolex moves from 44% back towards something closer to its pre-pandemic position, I'm not convinced we're watching the decline of Rolex. We may simply be watching reality return.
The part Rolex should actually worry about
There is one section of the Chrono24 report that I find much more interesting than the overall market-share number: young buyers. People under 30 still spend a larger proportion of their watch budgets on Rolex than older collectors do. Around 34% of spending among under-30 buyers goes towards Rolex. That's good news.
Now the bad news.
In 2022, that number was around 52%. That's a serious change. And I wouldn't brush it off as another post-pandemic correction. Because the younger luxury buyer is becoming harder to predict. The old formula was relatively straightforward. You became successful. You bought a Rolex. Maybe it was a Datejust. Maybe a Submariner. Maybe, once things were going particularly well, a Daytona. Rolex was almost shorthand for making it.
That connection hasn't disappeared, but it isn't quite as automatic anymore. A younger collector today might want a Cartier Santos or something strange from an independent watchmaker most people at the office have never heard of.
They might spend $10,000 and actively not want the obvious choice. That matters. Luxury changes when people stop wanting everybody else to know exactly how much their luxury costs.
For years, Rolex benefited enormously from being instantly recognisable. That strength can also become a weakness. Sometimes the person with enough money to buy the obvious status symbol reaches the point where they don't want the obvious status symbol anymore.
And then there's the Datejust
This might be my favourite part of the report. After years of hearing about Daytonas, Pepsis, Hulks, Batmans and whichever nickname collectors decided to give the latest bezel configuration, guess which Rolex family now generates the most transaction value on Chrono24?
The Datejust.
Rolex Datejust
Around 28% of Rolex's transaction value comes from it. There's something almost funny about that. The Datejust, which isn't normally the model somebody buys hoping to flip it six months later, is simply one of the most recognisable, wearable and enduring watches Rolex has ever made. And maybe that's exactly the point.
We're moving from a market obsessed with what Rolex is hottest to one asking which Rolex people actually want to own. Those are two very different things. Personally, I think that's healthier for the brand. Rolex does not need every customer to believe their watch is going to double in value. It needs customers who want to wear the thing for 20 years.
The Datejust buyer feels much closer to that. Of course, the madness hasn't disappeared completely. The discontinued steel GMT-Master II Pepsi is sitting around $25,900 on Chrono24, up roughly 23% year-on-year. Scarcity still works.
Collectors are still collectors. But one hot reference isn't the same thing as an entire market losing its mind.
The crown is travelling west
There's another shift happening underneath all of this. Rolex is getting stronger in North America. Its share of Chrono24 transaction value there is now around 35.4%, compared with roughly 27% in 2018.
Europe sits at approximately 28.7%. Asia is where things become less comfortable. Rolex's share there has dropped from somewhere in the low 30s to around 19.5%. It tells us that there isn't really one Rolex story anymore. The brand can be gaining strength in one region while losing some of its grip in another.
Back to reality
The Rolex market of 2022 couldn't last forever. Watches cannot keep climbing simply because the person behind you believes they'll climb too. Eventually somebody has to actually want the watch. We're getting back to that. Collectors are looking around again. Cartier is having a moment, Patek Philippe remains Patek Philippe, and Omega continues to sit in that frustrating position of making some exceptional watches while watching Rolex command the greater cultural pull.
And younger buyers appear more willing to explore. That's good for watches. It's probably good for Rolex too. Because Rolex's greatest achievement was never convincing people to pay three times retail for a steel sports watch. It was building a brand so strong that somebody who knows nothing about watches still knows what a Rolex means.
That hasn't disappeared.
Thirty percent of Chrono24 transaction value is still Rolex. In its core price bracket, it still takes more than 60%. Prices remain well above where they were before the pandemic. So no, Rolex hasn't lost its crown.
Author: Zachariah Mushawatu